The World's Not Broken - But It Is Evolving

Hello Friends!

A quick note on some reader feedback.

The links in the Rapid Fire section are never randomly chosen. They always relate to the digital transformation and/or self-sovereignty. Moving forward, I'll include how/why each link is relevant so that there's no confusion.

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Just because self-sovereignty is a personal journey doesn't mean there aren't a few common ways to approach the experience.

In this essay, I'll provide you with some food for thought to help get you started. Frameworks, concepts, and prompts to help you think about where you might want to start on your journey to establishing a self-sovereign lifestyle.

The Global Fuel Crisis Incentivizes A Multipolar World

There's an important shift taking place.

As the Russian/Ukraine War pushes past 6 months, the sanctions policies and financial warfare of Western nations continue. The consequence of this prolonged war is a growing energy crisis throughout Europe and other parts of the world. This crisis incentivizes a change in international relations.

A change that has huge implications for how global trade will evolve over time.

Here's the reality, Europe is overly reliant on cheap Russian fuel, and without constant access to this resource, the European economy is crumbling.

For example, protests have started in the UK as a result of the rising costs of energy. This includes an emerging populist movement that aims to stop paying energy bills altogether.

‘Don’t Pay’ energy bill protest gathers steam | Financial Times (archive.ph)

Aside from the carnage created when home electricity bills increase by 10x in a single year, there are deeper and longer-term damages being done to the industrial sectors of European economies. Simply put, as energy prices rise, the cost of manufacturing increases to a point where businesses are having to lay off workers and shut down production.

This is happening all over Europe, especially within the countries that were thought to have "stronger" economies. Just look at some of the countries that are having these issues alongside the UK.

France

Germany

Norway

This is a systemic issue throughout the entire Eurozone.

Here's the thing that we're not talking about though - manufacturing isn't something that can get restarted quickly. If energy prices remain high for an entire winter season, and that forces prolonged shutdowns of manufacturers, the demand for the goods will shift to global competitors with access to affordable energy.

There's a stickiness to this "change" that could be hard to reverse. And that is the overarching point that we need to pay attention to.

As the Eurozone faces this energy crisis, we need to watch what happens as domestic manufacturing closures accelerate. ie: where in the world will the supply of goods and resources shift to as the Eurozone struggles? And what will that mean for the shifting geopolitical power structure that has formed since the US withdrew from Afghanistan?

Case in point, look at India.

To be clear, most of this growth can be explained by post-covid recovery. But India is also a country that has recently purchased a lot of Russian energy at a steep discount since the Ukraine war began. With cheap energy, a large, low-cost labor force, and a nationalist desire to compete on the global stage, India is likely to be a relative winner in this crisis.

India’s GDP Grows 13.5% in April-June - Bloomberg

Further, we need to watch and see whether or not energy-rich countries decide to take advantage of this changing world order. As an example, will Canada and the US take advantage of lands rich in fossil fuels to provide cheap energy to the world? Or will they allow a green energy policy to prevent them from leveraging cheap energy as a means to gain global influence?

Canada needs to give the world what it wants — more natural gas | Financial Post 

The bottom line: this coming Winter will likely have a very profound impact on the global political economy for many years to come. It's a problem that won't go away.

Russia switches off Europe’s main gas line until sanctions are lifted | Financial Times (archive.ph)

The fuel crisis could lead to a major shift in which countries operate as the world's manufacturing hubs. And as countries rise and fall in this environment, it will lead to shifts in who can dictate global policy.

Watch how countries adapt to the circumstances created by this situation. And watch how this impacts the emergent class of Sovereign Individuals seeking to leave behind bad economies and take advantage of new opportunities.

Ask yourself, as economies rise and fall, how will their policies change towards the emergent class of location-independent people?

A World With High Inflation And Crypto

There's not much that needs to be said about inflation. Everyone is aware of it in some way or another. But there is an interesting development in Argentina worth taking note of.

There's an Argentine province that's started to accept tax payments in Stablecoins.

That's a huge early warning sign of state failure. ie: accepting tax payments in a non-native currency means that the local government has started to lose faith in the national economy.

An interesting key point here is that the crypto token of choice isn't Bitcoin. It's a dollar-denominated stablecoin.

With that said, it's likely that the adoption of stablecoins as a form of tax payment represents the first step in a series of transitions to more crypto adoption. This point is well said in the video below of Erik Voorhees.

You may be wondering, why would governments shift from stablecoins to Bitcoin or other cryptos? Why would they abandon dollar-denominated assets for crypto?

Because one of the side effects of the new multipolar global economy that is forming is that we may be entering a post-dollar world.

A post-dollar world is coming | Financial Times (archive.ph)

How countries respond to inflation (especially what currencies are deemed dominant) is important for figuring out the best places to live, work, and plan for the future.

Rapid Fire

The Office’s Last Stand - The New York Times (archive.ph) - "It's always, Google is doing XYZ, or Facebook is doing XYZ, or Small start-up down the street is doing XYZ, why can't we?"

Relevance: As fear of Covid continues to die off, the final fights over remote work policies will commence. And as some companies force workers back to the office, others will capitalize on flexible work policies as a way to attract digital workers. The individual now has many alternative options in the digital age which creates credible negotiating power.

Where Can I Find Cheap Rent? Suburbs Don't Offer Discounts as Price Gap Shrinks - Bloomberg - Where will you choose to live and why? That's a question people are asking themselves as fluctuating housing costs combined with the realities of remote work.

Relevance: In a world of remote work, it's easier for individuals to reject high costs by seeking out cheaper locations. This is location arbitrage which is a primary tool of individuals seeking personal sovereignty.

Thailand joins race to lure foreigners in path to economic boom (bangkokpost.com) - This is a new and very long-term visa. It's good for 10 years! Key point - overseas income will be tax-exempt.

Relevance: Earn income in a high-value currency and relocate to Thailand for a cost of living arbitrage. This creates a wealth multiplier effect and is increasingly how ascending economies will choose to compete with descending economies.

Returning to the Office: The Current, Preferred and Future State of Remote Work (gallup.com) - "The endowment effect: behavioral economics teaches us that people do not like to give up things they have acquired"

Relevance: The recent push to get people back in the office is going to create conflict. If you've built alternative options in pursuit of self-sovereignty, you're much better prepared for this situation.

2022 Teacher Shortage Driven by Low Salary, Covid Burnout (bloomberg.com) - "A study by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in March found that 44% of public schools reported teaching vacancies. By LinkedIn’s calculations, the number of teachers who quit in June was almost 41% higher than a year earlier."

Relevance: A recurring theme of the digital transformation is that standardized education systems are breaking down in more than one way. This leads to the question, what will you do to educate your children moving forward?

Aero Promises A New Class Of Aviation. Meet The Designer (forbes.com) - A new type of private jet service industry is emerging.

Relevance: In the post-covid world, new varieties of flying private have emerged to service individuals interested in privacy & bypassing strict travel policies. ie: it's a self-sovereign travel style.

Extras