Transformation or Stagnation, New Narratives, & Digital Detoxing

Because of Hurricane Ian we lost power, internet, and cellphone data reception for a big chunk of the week. It was a full digital detox that got in the way of producing the newsletter. So this week will be a short issue.

#1 2022 - 2030: Transformation Or Stagnation?

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: 2022-2030: Transformation or Stagnation?

This essay talks about historical cycles of transformation. It explores how new technologies combine with global events to change the course of a decade's development. And it asks a simple question, are we headed for a decade of positive and rapid transformation? Or are we headed for period of stagnation?

"We can of course detect change in every decade of human history, but Lenin's famous exaggeration ("There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen") speaks to the way various dynamics build up beneath the surface, interact with other forces and then burst forth."

"Cycles are often the result of the interconnecting forces of wars, economic turmoil, energy/food scarcities and large-scale economic and social forces: the transition from wood to coal, for example, or the mass immigration generated by crop failures and poverty."

"Some decades are easy and expansive, others are painful but necessary to lay the foundations for future progress."

"Could the world of 2030 look and feel completely different from the world of 2022, which is still coasting on the excesses of the waste is growth Landfill Economy of extreme financialization and globalization?"

"My guess is yes."

"Tumultuous transformations can set the stage for more widely distributed prosperity and liberation. Some decades are easy and expansive, others are painful but necessary to lay the foundations for future progress. Which will 2022-2030 be? Stay tuned."

The point being made is interesting. No matter what, transformation is likely. But it's hard to tell at the moment if the positive benefits of that transformation will be achieved easily or through a decade of turmoil.

#2 Remote Work Drove The Housing Price Surge

Remote Work Drove Over 60% of US House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds - Bloomberg

Studies continue to show that remote work impacts supply and demand across large parts of global economies. In America, a clear example is how remote work has driven changes in housing prices.

"The shift to working from home drove more than half of the increase in house and rent prices during the pandemic and will likely drive up costs and inflation going forward as the shift becomes permanent"

“This suggests that the fundamentals of housing demand have changed, such that the persistence of remote work is likely to affect the future path of real estate prices and inflation,”

If you're interested, here's the actual study: Remote Work and Housing Demand | San Francisco Fed (frbsf.org)

This is a huge point: remote work has large and meaningful impacts on economies at the local, state, national, and international levels. And as economists begin to understand these impacts, it will force them to adapt their policy recommendations to navigate this new reality. They'll need to ask themselves, are we experiencing inflation or are we experiencing the knock on effects of an economy shifting to steady state remote work? The answer should lead to drastically different policy choices.

#3 Narrative And Metaverse

Narrative and Metaverse, Pt. 1: The Living Word - Epsilon Theory (archive.ph)

Most people don't follow Ben Hunt for his politics. They follow him for what he teaches about the growing role of narrative manipulation in modern society.

This is a long essay but an important read.

It introduces the role narratives have in influencing people and societies. It's a relevant concept for understanding how individuals, communities, society at large, and governments interact with each other. And it's an important concept for understanding how the digital transformation will evolve moving forward.

"How do you rule the world?"

"By killing the ideas that do not serve your ruling interests, and by giving birth to the ones that do."

"Everything changes when you see that the order is imagined, that the Great and Terrible Oz is just a man behind a curtain. Everything changes when you see how others are creating thoughts for you to think and crowding out thoughts for you not to think. Everything changes when you take agency over the narratives you culture and the narratives you inoculate yourself against."

The point: narratives are a tool for changing beliefs. If you don't understand how they're used in modern society, you're more likely to be influenced by one group or another.

Rapid Fire

• Everything Is Broken - Tablet Magazine - This is probably a controversial essay on how the American system is broken. If you find yourself disagreeing with it, ask yourself what you disagree with and why?

• Hong Kong’s expat party continues — but for how long? | Financial Times (archive.ph) - "As expats leave the city, mainland Chinese workers arrive. International businesses are replacing their depleted expat ranks with more local talent. Hong Kong has always been caught in a cultural custody battle between China and the west but, with Xi Jinping’s brand of nationalism and disregard for the “one country, two systems” arrangement created by Deng Xiaoping, it’s unsurprising that it is becoming more Chinese."

• The AI Unbundling – Stratechery by Ben Thompson - This is a very good essay on how AI is providing another evolution in communication and the implications of that evolution. "The evolution of human communication has been about removing whatever bottleneck is in this value chain."

Extras

Narrative-Market-Fit - David Perell

Support the newsletter with a premium membership and get all kinds of extra content.