Relocation, Flag Theory, And The Tipping Point

How Zero Covid Causes Multipolarism, Government Spying, and Why Populism Is A Symptom Not a Diagnosis

#1 Relocation & Flag Theory

This week, there were a couple of interesting observations about how remote work is changing the world in real time.

"Rural areas and small towns rise in popularity as remote workers seek opportunity in more affordable communities"

This study confirms that many remote workers are still choosing to relocate and that they are moving further away than ever before. The data also highlights that remote workers are relocating for a variety of reasons including the cost-of-living arbitrage that remote incomes create.

But the most interesting point referenced in this study is the change in distance between a person's first and second home. ie: before remote work at large scale, when people decided to move, they historically only moved about 15 miles from their previous home. But now, the data suggests a massive expansion in range of relocation is underway. People now relocate almost 50 miles further away from their first home when they move.

The obvious reason being that remote work creates greater flexibility to move further away from a job.

"the opportunity for remote work meant they could exit more crowded and expensive places such as the Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York City. Those metro areas ranked among the biggest net loss of home buyers between March 2020 and February 2022, according to an analysis by mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac."

Data also shows that American's are now choosing to use remote work to exit America altogether in greater numbers. They're doing this by practicing what is referred to as flag theory. ie: seeking out living arrangements around the world to take advantage of unique perks that alternative countries provide.

"What started off as a pandemic escape for Americans seeking affordable destinations with few Covid-19 restrictions seems to have staying power. The increased presence of Americans, many of them remote workers, has implications for everything from the tourism industry to real-estate prices. "

"Overall, 10 million American tourists arrived in Mexico by air through September, an increase of almost 24% from the same period in 2019"

"Many of these travelers stay for weeks or months at a time to work remotely, but there are no official numbers on how many because they’re a “population that tends to be too mobile to be counted”

The bottom line: we are consistently getting more evidence that shows people are taking advantage of the benefits of remote work. They are using it to travel and live further away in places that allow them to gain more value in their lives. This is a clear sign that the digital transformation is underway and is a confirmation of a key aspect of the Sovereign Individual thesis.

#2 The Tipping Point On Societal Transformation

This essay is at times abstract and drags on but some of the key points it makes are relevant to the transitory times we live in. The takeaway is that changes to the world tend to follow similar patterns. Moving from times of simplicity, then tension, and then synthesis. By understanding these patterns, individuals and businesses can better position themselves to come out ahead of the curve.

"certain universal patterns consistently recur across different scales and timeframes. If you can work out where you are in that sequence, you actually have a decent chance of anticipating a range of future outcomes."

"If you correctly anticipate those future outcomes, you can change your behavior in the present."

The core points of the essay are that each of us have simple understandings of how the world works. But as the world starts to change, we receive mixed signals that force us to question our understanding of reality and our worldviews.

This creates tension between how we thought the world worked and the new way the world is evolving towards. Over time, this tension gives way to new insights about the world and what is described as synthesis. Basically, synthesis is the recognition that what we thought we knew is wrong and that we now must shift to a new perspective and a new way of operating.

"We evolve by continuously updating our models to incorporate new information. The more efficiently we can do that, the more effectively we can interact with the world."

"But it can also happen in a much more dramatic way. If your whole life and worldview are at odds with reality, that can set you up for serious suffering."

"tension and breakdown are a necessary precursor to synthesis. This collapse is obvious all around us currently as trust in the system craters. According to Gallup, the average confidence Americans have in major institutions is currently the lowest since the start of their dataset in 1979. The wildfire is incinerating every outdated and destructive mindset while creating a fertile space for something new to emerge."

This is really where the essay becomes relevant to us. By applying this model to the world around us, we can see that the world is entering the tension stage of transformation. By identifying the changing trends and adapting our worldviews, we are able to take action today in preparation for where the world is heading.

Although it's a longer essay, it provides an interesting perspective on common aspects of a changing world. By understanding how transitions happen and how they impact our way of life, we can better prepare for the transition that we're clearly living through.

If you don't want to read the entire essay, it's got a nice summary at the bottom.

Rapid Fire

Extras

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