What Influences Remote Work & Why Multipolarism Matters?

Investing in a high interest rate era, the importance of cybersecurity, the best passports, and more.

“The most important causes of change are not to be found in political manifestos or in the pronouncements of dead economists, but in the hidden factors that alter the boundaries where power is exercised. Often, subtle changes in climate, topography, microbes, and technology alter the logic of violence.”

#1 Factors Influencing Remote Work As The Covid Dust Settles

Remote work isn't a static or unchanging trend, it evolves according to society's circumstances.

And that's relevant to 2022 which has been a year of wide-scale societal changes influencing how governments, employers, and workers adapt to life after Covid. The point being that remote work opinions and policies rapidly shift as our global circumstances change.

For example, the global economy has introduced new pressures for governments, employers, and workers that impact how they view remote work.

  • The Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation disrupting all aspects of the economy

  • The cost of energy around the world fluctuates from a complex geopolitical landscape (ie: Russian sanctions, OPECs straining relationship with Biden & the US, and Chinese economic struggles), all of which erodes confidence in business prospects

  • The consequences of real estate valuations beginning to cool off (both corporate and residential) and how these factors influence remote work policies

These factors all combine to create an evolving landscape impacting remote work preferences.

Here's a closer look at how these topics impact remote work.

The Fed's rapid interest rate hikes are leading to corporate layoffs that have begun to spread beyond the technology sector. These layoffs are shifting negotiating leverage from individual employees to companies. ie: you're less likely to fight for remote work as a work perk when your industry is experiencing layoffs. The point being that a deep and prolonged recession will alter the rate of remote work in the workforce.

One-way layoffs are impacting remote work (as has been argued in this newsletter before) is that a deeper recession could be a catalyst for more unique types of remote work. It seems like every week there's more evidence that white collar workers are transitioning to contract style remote work.

Another impact of rising interest rates, layoffs, and remote work is that these trends intersect across real estate valuations.

Corporate real estate valuations are likely to have a large impact on the adoption of remote work going forward. ie: In a prolonged recession, will companies look to further downsize their corporate footprint as a way to manage costs? That would create a catalyst for prolonged remote work adoption. And as they downsize in a longer-term recession, can we expect corporate real estate owners to convert underutilized office space into alternative types of retail spaces as the above article suggests?

If this office conversion happens at a large scale, it may act as a forcing function to constrict available supply of office space and incentivize more remote work in the long run. ie: the combination of these factors might create a self-reinforcing feedback loop incentivizing more remote work policies and locking these policies in as permanent fixtures of society.

How will the evolving residential real estate and remote work migration trends continue to lock in remote work as a permanent trend?

As more people opt to leave behind "expensive cities" for more affordable locations as a means to combat inflation and tough economic times, how will this impact the ability for companies to reverse remote work policies? ie: if half your company moves far away from the office, you're not going to be able to tell them to come into the office 5 days a week moving forward unless you're willing to fire those people.

The overarching point here is that we need to continuously watch trends that might influence remote work moving forward. It's a mistake to assume that these work policies are static and not influenced by other forces. In 2023 we should watch for the economic and geopolitical events that began in 2022 to mature and further influence how we live, work, and form relationships.

These topics will continue to greatly influence the choices you can make in your life moving forward.

#2 Multipolarism Continues To Emerge And Create New Global Power Structures

A lot of people don't like to pay attention to geopolitics because they feel it doesn't have much to do with their day to day lives. That couldn't be more wrong. These events have 2nd and 3rd order impacts on our lives. And for anyone claiming to care about self-sovereignty, you cannot afford to ignore what's happening in the world because of the impact these events have on the choices you can ultimately make.

In 2022, we've seen corruption and the breakdown of traditional geopolitical systems and partnerships. The emergence of new government power brokers that seek to benefit from global turmoil. Nations and multinational corporations have started to reevaluate the tradeoffs between low costs, high profits, and supply chain risks that are created by a dynamically forming multipolar world order. And within that space, new systems of governance have started to emerge.

Here are some examples from the past week.

There was a massive police raid on Euro Zone politicians this past week. While there aren't a lot of details yet, it's clear that corruption has embedded itself deep in the EURO Union governing body. This doesn't seem to have been contained to one political party or another.

"Prosecutors said Belgium’s federal judicial police suspect the unspecified Gulf country of trying “to influence the economic and political decisions of the European Parliament.”

"It said this was allegedly done “by paying large sums of money or offering large gifts to third parties with a significant political and/or strategic position within the European Parliament.”

In a world of remote work and location independence, are you interested in living in a place where your politicians sell policy decisions to the highest bidder?

Qatar is a great example of a country actively filling voids on the global stage as the world shifts towards multipolarism. The point being that we can and should be asking who is benefiting from the US relinquishing its role as global cop, who benefits from Russia stuck in Ukrainian conflict with severe global sanctions, who benefits from Chinese zero covid policy and economic turmoil?

The Gulf nations are clearly benefiting from fluctuating energy prices and are enjoying increased influence with Western nations that have economies dependent on Russian fuel.

You can view the last two stories as interconnected examples of how nations are actively positioning for more influence on the global stage.

Other nations and multinational companies are also adapting to the new multipolar world. Some are specifically altering policy choices based on China's zero-covid and antagonistic Taiwan policies. This has led to significant investments in alternative supply chains for key resources and digital age technologies. Like TSMCs continuing investment in US manufacturing capabilities.

The overarching point here is that in 2023, we can expect these themes to continue to play out. As the world fragments politically, we can expect new winners and losers to emerge on the global stage. And as these events play out, it's important to watch how they might impact the choices we as individuals can make moving forward.

What do energy policies and semiconductor manufacturing supply chains have to do with you? The cost and access to the goods you've come to rely upon in the digital age are impacted by these events. They greatly impact your bottom line.

Rapid Fire

Extras

    How satisfied were you with today's newsletter?

    Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

    Join the conversation

    or to participate.