The Golden Visa In A Remote Work World

Watch How Countries React To Large Inflows Of Remote Workers

Portugal is a good example of how countries at the national level are struggling to create balanced policies for handling inflows of remote workers and location independent people.

On the one hand, Golden Visa and Passport programs exist to attract talented people and capital. They can be useful tools for governments in financial crisis. For example, Golden Visas/Passports were a valuable tool that helped Portugal navigate the European debt crisis by pulling in foreign capital.

But on the other hand, when these programs attract too many people, they alter local economies in meaningful ways. In this example, Portugal has seen rapid housing inflation which many people see as a direct result of the influx of location dependent people.

Portugal to End Golden Visa Program After Surge in Home Prices - Bloomberg

In response to this recent housing price inflation, Portugal is ending it’s visa by investment program. “Portugal will end its so-called golden visa program for new foreign property buyers as it tries to address the lack of affordable housing in one of Western Europe’s poorest economies.”

The end of this variation of Portugal’s Golden Visa program is significant. It showcases the emerging fight between the new social class structure of our global, digital society. A fight between the location-dependent class and the location-independent class peoples.

At the core of this fight, location-dependent advocates argue that there are serious downsides to attracting significant populations of location independent workers. In short, they argue that remote workers tend to drive up local prices with their demand for goods and services. These local advocates argue that location-independent / digital age salaries punch above the spending power of location-dependent locals and alter the local economies in a way that prices out locals.

The intermediate byproduct of this issue (aside from what’s happening in Portugal) is the standardization of quota systems for golden visa/passport programs.

Governments will establish a “happy medium” number of location independent workers that will be allowed to relocate from abroad within a given year.

Additionally, I’d expect the tax laws to change around these programs and especially around non-citizen residency programs. Places like Portugal attract many outside people because of cost-of-living arbitrage and income tax incentives. It’s likely we’ll see policymakers advocate for higher consumption taxes on non-citizen residents as governments start to adjust these programs to the realities of location-independent work in the digital age. Those realities? As more people can live and work from anywhere, they’ll shop around the world and take advantage of golden visa programs in greater numbers.

The other reason this story is important is because it emphasizes the realities of citizenship and Flag Theory in the digital age. ie: citizenship and residency incentive programs and migration policies are likely to change constantly, and you don’t want to get caught out in no-mans-land.

If you’re going to pursue The Sovereign Individual lifestyle you need to build a portfolio of residencies and citizenships because of how quickly these programs can end. The reality is that these benefits can also ultimately be stripped from you as governments adjust policies over time.

We saw this happen to Russians fleeing Russia in the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. Many were denied access to golden visa/passport programs and some had their already approved status outright revoked.

Residency and citizenship programs are a great tool for getting access to the world, but they can just as easily be walked back at a later date for a wide variety of reasons. If you have the desire and the means to pursue flag theory as a part of your self sovereign strategy, then you should really think about it in terms of portfolio construction.

Rapid Fire

• Mapping the Migration of the World’s Millionaires (visualcapitalist.com) - The lists of net losers and net gainers were very interesting and include a few that were surprising to me. Ex: the UK was a net loser and Australia was such a high net gainer.

• Nostr And Bitcoin Can Change Social Media - Bitcoin Magazine - This is a good introduction to Nostr, a new social media protocol that’s gaining traction in the Bitcoin community. “Nostr aims to decentralize private communications and data while allowing us to interact in new ways.”

• Remote Work Costs NYC $12 Billion a Year By Killing Big Offices - The downstream impacts of remote work - commuters spend less and that money no longer diffuses through a local economy. “Manhattan workers are spending at least $12.4 billion less a year due to about 30% fewer days in the office” On an individual basis, “That means the average worker is spending $4,661 less per year on meals, shopping and entertainment near their offices in New York. That compares to $3,040 in San Francisco and $2,387 in Chicago.”

• Roald Dahl books rewritten to remove language deemed offensive | Roald Dahl | The Guardian - Are we living through what will be thought of as the origin story for the Ministry of Truth from 1984? Rewriting the past to make us more comfortable is revisionist history and it’s a tool that’s been used to control populations in the past. Do I think this story itself is a big deal? No, not really. But do I think it's a warning sign of things to come that will become a big deal? Yes.

Extras

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