Crypto Resources For Next Cycle

Corporate real estate problems, remote workers love remote work, Bank of England economist on accepting being poor, and more.

I spent a little time over the last week organizing the "resources" I rely on to stay up to date in the crypto space.

I thought I’d share them with you and include where my head’s currently at with regards to investing in the ecosystem. So, this week’s edition will be a bit of a change of pace.

My “day job” is in crypto and through that experience, it’s become apparent to me that there’s been a lot of new tech hitting the ecosystem. Lots of new protocol and dapp features as well as entirely new protocols with different use cases.

As an investor, this is worth paying attention to because of the lag that exists between token prices and new products/features coming to market.

In overly simplistic terms, when a bunch of new tech hits the market at once, I expect interesting price swings to happen over time. And to be crystal clear, I see a lot of that happening in 6, 12, & 18 month cycles. 3 months for new features to get developed, 3 months for the tech to diffuse through the ecosystem, then as new tech diffuses through the ecosystem, it unlocks more use cases, developers around the ecosystem adapt to new standards, build new tech, and the cycle of innovation accelerates. Somewhere along the way, price catches up with increased utility of the ecosystem.

I believe that the FTX blowup and subsequent contagion is over, it marked the bottom of the past cycle (around January), and the projects that remain are back to building in steady state which restarts the new cycles.

The thought being that new features and protocol methods coming to market at regular intervals increases the probability of a new bull run. This is wildly speculative thinking but makes sense if you actually dig into what's happening and the changes coming to market. There’s other external risks especially on the regulatory front as the US enters Presidential election season and politicians fight for position. This will be made worse by the multipolar forces that are appearing around the world. But none-the-less, it’s worth spending more time doing research on the industry to understand where new tech might emerge to create powerful investment opportunities.

To that end, since I’m getting ready for this eventuality I figured I’d share some of the resources I use to make investment decisions with you as well.

Disclaimer:

I've made good money from investing in this industry. But I’ve also lost a good amount along the way as well. I definitely don't pretend to be the smartest or the most educated on this industry. On the contrary, my success has come from acknowledging that fact and instead has led me to focus on identifying who puts out good research and how can I use that research to identify assets that are likely to become valuable over time. ie: I just try to find smart people that are identifying industry trends and then I try to invest in those trends.

The list of resources below includes some examples of how and why I use them. These are some of the resources I use to educate myself on the industry, stay current on the tech, and ultimately form my own investment thesis. If your favorite tool, blog, or research isn't listed feel free to send me an email and tell me about why it should be on this list.

Bottom line: my instinct is telling me that the rate of product and feature developments will sync very nicely with the conclusion of the Fed's tightening process, the chaos of the US Presidential cycle, and will likely lead to a bull market sometime in the not too far future. I'm revamping my research now so that I can begin positioning myself for that eventual reality.

On to the tools.

Messari 

Messari (messari.io) was one of the first crypto info products I ever paid for. The enterprise level is probably too expensive for 95% of people but I do still think the Pro version has real value. I use it to follow assets by different industry segments and always go out of my way to read the yearly thesis they put out.

Page One

Page One is one of my favorite no frills crypto publications. It's published once or twice a week with monthly recaps.

What I like is that it goes a little deeper in the weeds than most "news" publications, covers some details on the tech and provides light investment analysis. What I like most though is that they aren't afraid to cover everything of interest and don't hold purity tests like some publications do. In plain English - they'll cover the hot NFT, meme, and shitcoin stories regardless of whether they're ponzis or not.

I value this information because it provides a relatively unfiltered way to understand what themes the degenerate gamblers and the broader hot ball of money are rotating into and why. (As an aside, they have a popular and active discord community which I'm confident has a lot of "alpha" but I don't participate because I find discord to be one of the most unpleasant places on the internet).

Dune Analytics Dashboard & Newsletter

With so much data created "on-chain", its increasingly possible to conduct fundamental analysis in a variety of ways.

I like the Dune Analytics email (Example of the email) simply because I don't have to do any digging, it presents nicely wrapped data driven narratives for me to consume, and I use it as a jumping off point for further research. In particular, I like their callouts for various dashboards that users have created.

Just by reading their email over time I’ve built a better understanding of how to make sense of on-chain data.

Delphi Digital 

I used to read their regular newsletters but haven't as much lately. I don't have a great reason other than there's only so many hours in the day.

That said, I do love their crypto gaming and metaverse coverage and definitely recommend following Piers Kicks if that's a topic you're interested in. I'm pretty sure I got into Axie Infinity (the crypto game with a crypto asset) early because of their analysis which turned into a major exit for me. (I don't own it anymore and don't have an opinion on the asset as of today. Don’t just buy it because I wrote about it here)

DeFi Llama

A growing meta theme within the crypto industry is that there are numerous tools and resources available to conduct a growing variety of fundamental analysis. DeFi Llama is a great example.

In particular, I like using their dashboards on fees/revenue to understand what projects actually make money.

I also like following the evolving landscaping of Liquid Staking Derivatives in both Ethereum and Solana communities. Here's an example of an interesting Ethereum LSD dashboard. Liquid staking is one industry theme that I’m personally very interested in.

Staking Rewards

I use StakingRewards.com to better understand the growing size and scope of the Proof of Stake industry. This site is good for comparing yields of PoS chains and it's helpful as high level research.

Nansen

Nansen has some of the most interesting data tracking I've seen in the industry. They make some of their dashboards public and you can use limited features without paying. The paid tier is expensive and I'd only recommend paying for it if you have a good game plan for how to make use of the information.

That said, I always keep my eyes peeled for any free insights they share with the public.

They’re worth a follow on Twitter because they frequently share free dashboards and research which even if you don’t pay for Nansen is useful as a jumping off point for research with these other tools.

Token Unlocks

Token Unlocks is useful for understanding token supply metrics and how new supply unlocks might impact price via dilution events. Their 2022 annual report was also an interesting read.  

What am I watching for? Among many things, what does price do leading up to an expected unlock? Of the tokens tracked in the 2022 report, token price tends to decrease by as much as 15% in the 30 days leading up to a major unlock and remains flat to slightly negative for some time after. Importantly, this data is limited in scope, doesn't represent the entire ecosystem, and past performance isn't indicative of future performance. BUT, if I were nervous about a token unlock in an asset I’ve invested in, I'd use this info to guide my exit at least a month before the unlock is expected to take place.

Token Terminal 

Another tool with tons of fundamental data that helps compare and contrast chains and projects. In particular, I like being able to see fees generated on a longer time frame. The main use for me is if I want to do any type of fundamental research, I'll incorporate data from Token Terminal.

GMX and LDO were tokens I bought and my choice was guided by many of the above research tools (not investment advice).

Glassnode

"The week onchain" is a great regular publication that provides interesting data driven narratives.

I like the detailed analysis that can help make sense of what's actually happening on-chain. For example, in this weeks article, there's a chart (Bitcoin: Supply In Profit/Loss) that's of particular interest. It shows that based on recent pricing of bitcoin, the number of bitcoin holders in positions of unrealized loss vs unrealized profit has shifted. This shows that a larger segment of the market is now operating from a position of strength.

For me, that helps me understand broader market psychology and how market participants may react to different types of news.

Some Runners Up:

I also like reading the reports, blogs, and investment notes from prominent VCs and industry insiders. Here's a few in particular that I keep an eye out for.

Electric Capital Reports - They have a really interesting yearly report.

Pantera Capital Reports for blogs, insights, and occasionally it’s worth follow investing in their portfolio companies.

Cobie's Substack - He’s been in the industry for a long time and although he doesn’t write frequently I always pay attention to what he has to say.

Arthur Hayes - I don’t take Arthur’s words as gospel but he’s another one that I always try to read. I find his knowledge of both crypto and macro to provide really useful perspectives on what’s happening to the industry at a high level.

Rapid Fire

Extras

How satisfied were you with today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Join the conversation

or to participate.