Cities Decline, Digital Passports, & Crypto's First World Problem

Internet countries, Hong Kong pays for your flight, and more.

Author

Doug Antin
October 10, 2022

#1 More Data: Remote Work Is Causing Cities To Decline

This story makes a point worth repeating again and again.

Remote work is a transformative force that causes both rapid and slow-moving changes in society.

For example, in previous weeks we've covered the consequences of large office vacancies due to hybrid work. ie: it will have major impacts on city economies. But the long length of corporate leases prevents the effects of reduced office occupancy from being felt all at once. So the transformation in this case is more of a slow-burn phenomenon. Like a city wound festering over time.

If you're paying attention though, you'll see that the effects are starting to play out.

The easiest way to see the change is in the massive amounts of real estate value getting wiped out. This has huge implications for city budgets.

New York is the perfect case study.

"Researchers estimate the value of the city’s stock of office buildings will remain well below pre-pandemic levels given the rise in remote work."

"The values of those properties declined nearly 45% in 2020 and are forecast to remain roughly 39% below pre-pandemic levels due to the persistence of flexible work policies that gained traction during the crisis, according to a new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research."

Why should you believe this trend will continue?

Because companies like Meta (Facebook) are already starting the long process of downsizing their office needs to accommodate hybrid work policies.

"As it reviews its physical spaces, Meta may let some existing office leases expire or could potentially consolidate floors across multiple buildings into a single one"

The point to focus on is how cities evolve under this tidal force pressure, which will continue to slowly play out over the next two to five years. Maybe a little longer. It will manifest in new government policies, tax shortfalls, government programs ending due to lack of funding, and so on. The bottom line: watch for cities to adapt by offering unique incentives designed to lure remote workers and their capital.

Also, watch for cities to design pro-business policies to attract companies and their in-person office teams to town. Miami is the good case study in this example.

ie: in-person work isn't going away.

But cities might have to more aggressively compete for the smaller amount of office workers that continue to commute. What might that mean for preferential policies designed to attract these people and businesses?

#2 Passports Need An Upgrade

An interesting 10-minute talk on the need to upgrade the ideas and technologies behind the modern passport system. The general point: governments need to cut down on overly bureaucratic and paper-oriented processes. It's time to digitize them and streamline the border-crossing process around the world.

"It's time to give paper passports a digital upgrade, says entrepreneur Karoli Hindriks. Looking to Estonia's technology-driven government for inspiration, she envisions a world where immigration is no longer hindered by bureaucracy and needless repetition. Travel with her to a future beyond borders where universal digital passports replace paper ones -- and where outdated systems stop wasting our time and money."

#3 Crypto's First-World Problem

This is an excellent perspective on the crypto industry from an industry insider.

In short, the point being made is that venture investments and crypto builders are focused almost exclusively on "first world" use cases. But the crossing-the-chasm moment for crypto is more likely to come from the "emerging regions of the world". The places that have a real need for financial, privacy, and social technology innovations.

"most of the VC money invested into crypto goes to European and North American teams. We keep seeing the same types of people from the same backgrounds building the same things over and over and over ad infinitum."

"I believe emerging regions are where most of the next trailblazing use cases for crypto and blockchain will originate. Why? Necessity breeds innovation. The financial, political, and social issues that so-called “developing countries” experience, paired with the maturing blockchain ecosystem, will result in an environment ripe for the development of some of the most high-impact applications of our time."

"However, the only way to enable widespread adoption is to build secure, scalable, and affordable solutions tailored for a population with an average monthly income of ~$500. Specifically, this means transactions need to cost a fraction of a penny, and dApp UX should have the same look and feel as standard, modern web applications."

Some of the most profound areas of digital transformation will take place on the "periphery" of "developed-world" society. These areas that have traditionally struggled to keep pace with late industrial age growth are able to leverage digital infrastructure to become modern powerhouses. A trend worth following and investing in.

Rapid Fire

Extras

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